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Pulse Asia’s January 2007 Pre-election Survey
source : Pulse Asia, Inc   
Friday, 02 March 2007 17:39
Media Release on Filipinos’ Senatorial Preferences

Pulse Asia is pleased to share with you some findings from its January 2007 national survey on Filipinos’ Senatorial Preferences. We request you to assist us in informing the public by disseminating this information.

Based on a multistage probability sample of 1,200 representative adults 18 years old and above, Pulse Asia’s nationwide survey has a +/- 3% error margin at the 95% confidence level. Subnational estimates for each of the geographic areas covered in the survey (i.e., Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao) have a +/- 6% error margin, also at 95% confidence level. Face-to-face field interviews for this project were conducted from January 25 to 29, 2007. (Those interested in further technical details concerning the surveys’ questionnaires and sampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-tested questions actually used.)


 While the interviews for this survey were being conducted, various developments dominated the news headlines. Among these were Charlie “Atong” Ang’s plea-bargaining agreement with the court in connection with his plunder case, the re-investigation of former Batangas Governor Antonio Leviste’s homicide case, the decision of former Senators Vicente Sotto III and Tessie Aquino-Oreta to bolt the Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino (LDP) and join the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC), Senator Juan Ponce Enrile’s resignation as chairperson of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino, the President’s signing of the poll automation bill paving the way for partial automation of the May 2007 elections, the COMELEC’s claim that it would be impossible to implement the automation law in time for this year’s mid-term elections, the administration’s proposal for a “unity ticket” and a four-party summit in preparation for the elections, the reported overpricing of ballot paper to be used for the May 2007 elections, and the passage of the 2007 appropriations bill. Relatively good economic news also attended much media reporting as higher overseas worker remittances, higher levels of foreign investments, a lower inflation rate and a within-target but moderated economic growth rate were recorded during the time of the survey interviews.

The survey’s sampling design and questionnaire are the full responsibility of Pulse Asia’s pool of academic experts and no religious, political, economic or any other form of partisanship has been allowed to influence the survey design, the findings generated by the actual surveys or the subsequent analyses of survey findings.

Pulse Asia undertakes surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.

Opposition candidates continue to lead the May 2007 senatorial race; a tight race is shaping up for the last seven slots

If the May 2007 elections were held today, 14 personalities – seven of whom are officially part of the United Opposition’s senatorial slate, six may or may not run under the administration’s ticket, and one will run as an independent opposition candidate – would have a statistical chance of winning a senatorial seat. This figure is lower than the 19 recorded in November 2006. Former Senator Loren Legarda continues to lead the list of probable winners with 46.6% of Filipino adults expressing support for her candidacy. In distant second place are Senators Panfilo M. Lacson (34.6%) and Francis N. Pangilinan (34.6%). They are followed by Taguig-Pateros Representative Alan Peter S. Cayetano (31.7%) and former Senator Vicente C. Sotto III (28.8%). These individuals may be considered as sure winners if elections were held today given that their current statistical rankings range from 1st to 11th places – clearly within the winning circle of 12 senators.

In addition, six individuals share the same statistical ranking of 5th to 14th places. These are: (1) Senate President Manuel B. Villar, Jr. (26.4%); (2) Senator Ralph G. Recto (26.0%); (3) Senator Joker P. Arroyo (25.8%); (4) San Juan Mayor JV Ejercito-Estrada (25.7%); (5) Atty. Aquilino Pimentel III (24.4%); and (6) Senator Edgardo J. Angara (24.0%). Completing the list of probable winners are former Senator Gregorio B. Honasan (23.3%), House Minority Leader Francis G. Escudero (23.2%), and Tarlac Representative Benigno C. Aquino III (22.5%). On the other hand, 12.2% of the survey respondents are either still undecided as regards their senatorial candidates or refuse to name their senatorial preferences at this time. On average, Filipinos are naming eight (out of a maximum of 12) of their senatorial bets for the May 2007 elections – the same figure recorded in Pulse Asia’s November 2006 Ulat ng Bayan national survey. Pulse Asia, Inc


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